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Executive summary
European transport decarbonization is proceeding through fragmented, mode-specific pathways rather than a single coherent strategy, resulting in divergent trajectories shaped by technology, regulation, markets, and investment cycles. Shared infrastructure, aggregated demand and multimodal infrastructure and services act as mechanisms to smooth and synchronize these cycles. On the one hand, shared infrastructure and aggregated demand across modes (hydrogen, e-fuels, renewable hubs) can reduce costs and accelerate deployment. The Port of Rotterdam exemplifies this model, providing centralized hydrogen infrastructure for multiple sectors. On the other hand, multimodal integration enhances efficiency, reduces road dominance, and supports EU policy goals (TEN-T, ITS Directive, Combined Transport Directive). Ambition is now clearly established: the EU seeks to develop connected transport corridors and improve interoperability across road, rail, inland waterways, ports, and airports, making multimodality a structural feature of the future transport system rather than an optional complement. In this context, multimodality shows the most complex dynamics. Transport operators are increasingly required to invest in multimodal solutions, adapt their business models, and can coordinate with competitors and partners – often across modes – while continuing to operate under strict economic, operational, and financial performance constraints. The core challenge, then, is to realize the value-creation potential of multimodality by identifying how multimodal strategies can be both economically sustainable and capable of meeting the performance expectations of those responsible for implementing them. Without clear pathways, multimodality risks imposing additional costs, complexity, and coordination burdens that weaken, rather than reinforce, the business case for decarbonization. This paper argues that the effectiveness of multimodality depends critically on how regulatory frameworks and contractual arrangements translate policy objectives into concrete economic incentives; how risks, costs, and returns are allocated among participating actors; and how investment decisions are sequenced and coordinated over time. When these elements are aligned, multimodality can support both decarbonization and long-term competitiveness. When they are not, multimodality risks becoming a source of economic fragility – eroding investment capacity and undermining the very transition it is intended to accelerate.
