This a a translation of an op-ed published on Les Echos, find the original post in French on this page, it was published on 02/07/26 at 16:45 – Updated on 03/07/26 at 11:03
In the face of global warming, infrastructure must be designed to be resilient and flexible, able to withstand a range of scenarios. Those who incorporate these climate-related constraints into their investment models will set the rules for tomorrow’s market.
This piece is co-authored by:
- Gwenola Chambon (CEO and co-founder of Vauban Infrastructure Partners)
- Patrice Geoffron (Professor at Paris Dauphine University – PSL)
- Thomas Bourleaud (Partner at Altermind)
There is no doubt about it: climate change is happening right now! Without the global warming of recent decades, global GDP would currently be significantly higher (possibly by more than 30 per cent), as suggested by the work of Adrien Bilal (winner of the 2026 Best Young Economist Award) and Diego Känzig[1] . They also estimate that every additional degree of warming would result in a 20 per cent loss of global GDP by 2100. These threats are greater than what models had previously predicted (a loss of 1 to 3 per cent per degree[2] ). Insurers are also sounding the alarm. According to a recent study by Allianz Trade, heatwaves alone could reduce the GDP of the most exposed economies by a cumulative 5–7 per cent by 2030 – amounting to 200 billion for France. Axa Climate estimates that, even now, natural hazards cost low- and middle-income countries around 400 billion dollars a year.
Economically, climate change erodes returns on capital and reduces productive capacity. This phenomenon directly affects infrastructure (energy, transport, telecoms, etc.). Beyond its direct ‘physical’ impacts, climate change, through its macroeconomic repercussions, affects even assets sheltered from local risks. The question is therefore no longer whether an asset will be exposed, but to what extent and how it will absorb the shock.
This observation raises a question: how should we design, finance and manage infrastructure when climate disruption is becoming a dominant economic factor? Here is what infrastructure operators – who are already on the front line – have to say. Fundamentally, as Sébastien Fraisse, CEO of Indigo, states, “the assumption of infinite growth, implicitly built into all transport models, is now obsolete; we must mobilise all stakeholders, particularly local public decision-makers, to rethink development trajectories”.
Infrastructure best equipped to cope with uncertainty could therefore see its relative value increase. On the one hand, those that are the most ‘resilient’, capable of maintaining service continuity in a deteriorating environment: an electricity substation raised above flood level, a railway line that withstands rail expansion during heatwaves, a water network designed to cope with prolonged droughts. And, on the other hand, those that are the most ‘flexible’, capable of being adapted without compromising their economic and operational performance as demand, the regulatory framework or climatic conditions change.
This is notably the vision of Fabrice Lepoutre, CEO of Coriance: “The structural drivers – energy sovereignty, decarbonisation, resilience and accessibility – are more powerful than short-term instability. Infrastructure must become modular, adaptable and capable of creating value in new ways.”
The challenge is therefore no longer to plan infrastructure around a ‘central’ trajectory, but to design it so that it remains effective across a range of possible futures: “We need to introduce a third category of capex: resilience capex,” suggests Christoph Bruguier, Chief Investment Officer at Vauban Infrastructure Partners. However, the market must still value these at their fair price: without a price signal, resilience remains merely an intention; with one, it becomes an asset. Public-private partnerships, project finance or green finance can contribute to this, without placing a burden on public finances.
Infrastructure players must step up the pace: because they manage assets designed to last for decades, they have a responsibility to incorporate, from today, the constraints of the coming decades. The ability to anticipate will distinguish those who set the market rules from those who are subject to them. “Adaptation is not ‘optional’, and those who act early will set tomorrow’s standards, whilst the others will have to follow them,” warns Samuel Champion, Chief Financial Officer of Veolia Italy.
With the Rencontres Économiques d’Aix approaching in July, under the theme ‘Navigating a world without reference points’, this line of thinking takes on particular significance. When it comes to infrastructure, the aim is to establish new reference points in an uncertain environment. This challenge must ensure that resilience is no longer seen as a constraint, but as a sustainable source of value.
[1] Adrien Bilal and Diego R. Känzig, “The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 141, no. 2, May 2026
[2] For example: S. Hsiang et al., “Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States”, Science, vol. 356, 2017
Read the article in French: https://www.lesechos.fr/idees-debats/cercle/ponts-reseaux-centrales-le-climat-force-a-repenser-ce-qui-dure-des-decennies-2240472
